Baseball free agency began before the sun came up today and while I’d love to go down the list of the top 100 free agents and predict where each and every one of them would go, as Sweet Brown would say “AIN’T NOBODY GOT TIME FOR THAT!!” So instead of that lengthy and futile process, I’ll just focus on my beloved Texas Rangers. Now there’s two ways of viewing the Rangers right now:
1. No team in the bigs has more wins than the Rangers in the past three seasons and only the Yankees have more wins in the past five years. For a team that has been a perennial bottom feeder for almost four decades, the past five years have been a dream (or at least they should have been). Two World Series appearances, a third season that ended in a playoff “play-in” game and a fourth season that ended with a one game playoff to get into the one game play-in game (did that make sense, probably not). Basically the past four years have been the absolute best in Rangers history and the margin is so great that there isn’t a second place. The farm system is also considered one of the best in the league, there are plenty of young, established pieces to build around and the organization should be set up well to increase spending in the next couple of years. It’s all sunshine and rainbows right?!?!
2.Well moving onto the ‘glass half full’ viewpoint, the Rangers are said by some to be on the wrong side of a closing window of opportunity. One World Series slipped through their fingers in 2011 and it’s almost as if the franchise (or probably more accurately the fan base) has never fully recovered from being so close to a championship. After back to back WS losses, the team has moon walked further and further from serious playoff contention. One epic late season collapse in 2012 and simply an up and down, injury riddled 2013 has left everyone wondering what the future holds for these Red Shoed Rangers. Where will the offensive fire power come from in the future? Will management use prospects to bolster this lineup immediately or will they continue to take a ‘wait and see approach?’ There’s certainly a segment of the Ranger population who think, at least in the short term, that we’ve seen the last of serious playoff contention and that this thing is headed for a bit of a “transition period.”
As for which category I fall into, I like to consider myself a very rational and ‘big picture’ type of fan. I understand that only one team can win ‘the Ship’ every year and that being one of those 29 other teams doesn’t necessarily mean that you’ve had a disappointing season. I thoroughly enjoyed the past five years and I truly believe this team has the potential to continue winning in 2014 and beyond. With that huge caveat, I’m somewhere in between both mindsets listed above. I think we have some fantastic pieces in place to build around and plenty of “ammo” to go get impact players via free agency or in trades, but I also think the margin for error is smaller than it has been. Signing big time free agents (something I think is imperative at this point) comes with risk, and when you’re talking about guys on the wrong side of 30, you’re suddenly talking about significant, back breaking risk. This is not a ‘money bags’ franchise that can afford a total bust in free agency, a fact that has led to several big name free agents to sign elsewhere in the past couple of seasons. The Rangers must be fiscally prudent and those words don’t often mesh well with free agency. With all that being said, it’ll be interesting to see just how deep the Rangers wade into the free agency pool. They have some significant needs heading into the winter and there are some names out there that would instantly upgrade their roster, if they play to their paper….ah but that’s the beautiful and terrifying risk of free agency.
With that giant, meandering, long winded introduction out of the way, here are the areas that the Texas Rangers need to address this offseason:
Catcher: This is the absolute biggest hole on the current roster, considering that they don’t have a single one under contract. A.J. Pierzynski was a free agent signee from last year and he was rather “MEH.” He didn’t replicate his career year of 2012 but he wasn’t a major reason why this team didn’t win more in 2013 either. His production was just a tick below his career averages which should have been what most expected from a 36 year old catcher. I can’t imagine there are many folks clamoring to have him back in 2014, but I haven’t heard of a retirement press conference either so I guess it’s a remote possibility. Geovany Soto was resigned to a one year deal today and projects as your backup and personal catcher of Yu Darvish. He’s a very competent backup catcher who’s at least not totally lost at the plate. But, if he’s you’re opening day starter next April; something will have gone terribly wrong this winter.
1st Base/DH/COF: I lump all these positions together because they’re too intertwined to separate at this point. What we do know, or at least are fairly certain of, is that Alex Rios will be the everyday right fielder in 2014. Other than that, I think we’re somewhat certain that Nelson Cruz will be back in 2014 and to a lesser extent somewhat certain that he’ll be back as the primary DH. If both of those two scenarios play out as we believe they will, then we desperately need a left fielder and also need, in some way, an upgrade for Mitch Moreland at first base. If Cruz slips away in free agency, then this management will really be scrambling to add bats to an offense that scored just 730 runs in 2013 (lowest for this franchise since 1995). Cruz could conceivably continue to play in the field next season (although in that case he’d probably be in RF with Rios in LF), but that would have to mean that they would have sign someone even more immobile than Boomstick (which would be tough to do). Moreland is in store for an interesting off season. What we do know is that he’s a below average first baseman, both with the glove and the stick(ranked 21st among 1B in OPS in 2013), and that he’s borderline useless against left handed pitchers. What he has going for him though, is that he’s cheap and that there are enough holes on this roster to understand how he could still have a starting job when the dust settles. At this point there are just too many unknowns to really be able to project whether he’s the opening day first baseman or a ‘4 corners’ backup.
Those two areas, or four positions depending on how you look at them, are the primary areas of focus this offseason, according to yours truly. I’m 100% content with the pitching staff and would be in full support of not spending a dime on an arm. I absolutely love our starting four pitchers (Darvish, Holland, Harrison and Perez) and I’m very excited about the state of the bullpen, even without Joe Nathan. When you add in the swiss army knife known as Alexi Ogando, who’s projected to be a starter right now, barring any starting pitcher acquisitions, you’ve got a formidable staff from top to bottom. As a whole the entire staff is full of young, electric arms and this group of pitchers should ensure that this team is competitive for the immediate future even with a below average offense. Having very few, if any, holes in the staff should allow JD and company to spend the entire offseason looking under every rock for offensive production.
Next time we’ll look at some potential targets to fill these vacancies...
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